Tuesday, 16 July 2013

Cruising higher into August

For the bulls, it was day'14 of a rally that has seen the sp' ramp 122pts, from what now looks like a very distant 1560 level. Mid-term best guess is for a multi-week down cycle starting in August, flooring in September..before continued broad upside into spring 2014.

sp'weekly8 - near term count


For the bears, the pressure is really start to buckle many again. It is 3 trading weeks since the June'24 low of 1560, and there is absolutely no sign of this rally ending.

Indeed, best guess is that we are currently in a super strong sub wave'3, and that the sp'1700s are now a given. The only issue is how high might a fifth wave take us into August?

Best guess...1740/60s

Looking ahead

There is CPI, industrial production, and housing data for Tuesday, so the market will have some excuses to rally in the early morning.

*next significant QE-pomo is not until this Friday.

I remain on the sidelines, and am merely trying to be patient. If there is any drop in the main indexes/Oil later this week, I might get involved, otherwise...I'm more than content to sit it out until early August.

The really depressing aspect is that..all things considered, it does look like my 'hyper-bullish outlook' is on track, and that would be looking for sp'2000 by next spring, perhaps even in the 2200/2300s.

As many might agree...'the delusion continues'.

Goodnight from London