sp'monthy3, rainbow
sp'weekly4, rainbow, - hyper bullish scenario
Summary
Sp'1563 is a level that even most deluded bullish maniacs would hardly have seen as viable, even just a few months ago. Yet, here we are, and the primary trend remains to the upside. There is simply NO sign of a turn..or levelling phase.
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The monthly chart is offering 1570/80s in the immediate term. 1600s look a little out of range, especially given the recent run up.
The 'disturbing' weekly4 chart
I will again highlight the 'hyper-bullish' chart which I am keeping in mind for the coming weeks..and months. Unless the Fed POMO program stops, I will be trading this very bullish outlook.
I am seeking the top of minor black iii, and then a multi-week down cycle - that might not complete until May. A basic fib retracement (from the November 2012 low of 1343 to 1563) offers the sp'1480/70s, and with the 1470s being the highs of the last big up cycle - Sept'2012, I am very much going to have that as my primary downside target.
I suppose 1450/25 is viable - and indeed there remains a big SPY/ES gap at the 1425 zone, but that just seems like too big of a move lower, whilst the Fed is still throwing 85bn a month at the financial markets.
Looking ahead
The market has four pieces of econ-data to digest tomorrow, but perhaps more importantly, its a quad-opex, and its a big POMO day.
Price action will likely be a bit more choppy than today, but still..the pressure should in theory be to the upside. We could very easily close the week in the 1570s.
*I will seriously consider a major index re-short towards the end of next week, but as ever, one day at a time.
Goodnight from London