Friday, 15 March 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes just keep on rising, lead by the Rus'2000 and the Transports. The sp' is now just 13pts shy of its Oct'2007 high of 1576. Near term trend remains upward, but the 'best guess' count suggest we are no more than 3-5 days from a multi-month top.


IWM



SP'daily5



Trans


Summary

All those who have been shorting the indexes - and going long volatility, across this month have been seriously destroyed. Even worse, there is still NO sign of a turn/levelling phase.
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However, the near term count (see 60min charts) suggest we're getting real close to a top.

A decline from 1570/80s..down to at least the 1470s seems very viable by April/May.

Unless the Feds QE-POMO program is terminated, any such multi-week pull back will merely be another 'dip buying' opportunity.
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a little more later