Thursday 5 December 2013

Volatility climbs a record eighth day

With the main indexes closing weak, the VIX closed higher for the eighth consecutive day, +2.6% @ 15.08. Near term outlook is for a moderately higher VIX, although it is going to be tough for the VIX to hold the 16/17s for very long. VIX 20s still seem unlikely until next Jan.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


Summary

Today was the eighth consecutive daily gain in the VIX, which I believe is (as far as I know) a new record.
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Clearly, the near term trend is for higher volatility, next upside target would be 16/17.

If the market likes the jobs data tomorrow (from a no-taper perspective), then VIX could quickly slip to the 14.00/13.50 zone.

More than anything right now, it would still seem the VIX will not be trading above the key 20 threshold until next January, when the debt ceiling/budgetary issues will once again arise.
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more later..on the indexes