sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
*VIX chart slightly redrawn to cover the earlier marginal break lower.
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The hourly index/VIX charts are really telling the story today.
We have a VIX which is pushing higher for what (I believe) is a record eighth consecutive day. The indexes are merely melting lower.
However, the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is already very low, and I've seen this situation hundreds of times before..and it VERY rarely works out well for the bears.
On balance, we are likely to see a snap higher..clearly unlikely today..but more so...tomorrow.
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With the big monthly jobs data tomorrow, anyone holding long or short overnight, is going to be susceptible to a rather significant opening gap higher...or lower.
I'm still guessing up
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3.18pm... 42mins to go..bulls need 7pts to break the down trend. Its viable...and we're seen it happen a few hundred times over the past few years.
3.30pm.. sp'1786..bulls just need 5pts to break that trend!
3.33pm.. a classic nano double spike top..on the earlier Silver bounce...back to the opening gap.
SLV, 5min
Broad target remains 17.00
3.40pm.. 4pts to go..market trying to make a break for it...
3.47pm.. micro snap lower...bulls fail again. A close at low of the day would understandably excite some out there..and open up the 1770/65 zone by the Friday close.
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3.53pm... the bears are going to hold the ball..for day'5.
VIX will get the 8'th daily gain..probably a new record.