sp'weekly8
Summary
It is usually hard to count these waves. As for the above chart, I suppose its possible we're now in sub'4 (blue)...with a likely hit on the rising 10MA in the 1770/50 zone.
Regardless of the micro moves..I'm still holding to the broader upside outlook into early next year, where I would then be looking for a stronger down wave (5-7%) than the current wave (2-4%) - probably to be inspired by the usual debt ceiling/budgetary concerns.
Looking ahead
Tomorrow will of course be all about the monthly jobs data. Market is seeking net gains of 180k, with a slightly lower headline rate of 7.2%.
There is also personal income/outlays, consumer sentiment, and consumer credit.
There are two fed officials on the loose, whose comments might push the market around a bit.
*there is VERY heavy QE of around 4-5bn...bears...beware!
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Miscellaneous chart of the day
US, 10yr yield, monthly, 15yr overview/outlook
I have to guess we'll eventually hit 4-5% in the current multi-year economic cycle. A peak in late 2015, would match up perfectly with Armstrong's ECM cycle peak in 2015.75.
Doomer bears want good news..for the market to fall, lol
So we're again in the situation where good jobs data might mean the market decides that Fed QE-taper is a little closer. As many have come to accept, the market cares for virtually nothing else, other than its QE liquidity fix/prop...fuel..or whatever you want to call it.
What is my call on the jobs number? Probably >200k, which would likely be enough to make the market seriously wonder if the Fed might taper at the next FOMC of Dec'18. Not that I think that is going to happen, for which I won't get into this night.
It has been a reasonably interesting week, hopefully we'll see some dynamic price action to end the week with a little excitement - even if that is to the upside.
Goodnight from London