sp'500
We're a mere 5pts shy of the recent high of 1775, and the sp' looks set to break into the 1800s before year end. Certainly, we're scraping along the upper bollinger, and the 1800s look more likely next month..than November. There is absolutely nothing bearish here. Underlying price momentum is strong.
Nasdaq Comp'
The tech' is just fractionally lower so far this month, but looks set to break into the 4000s within the next few weeks. As noted over the last few months, the ultimate target remains the tech bubble peak of - March'2000 @ 5132. That of course is a clear 28% higher than current levels..and will probably not be hit until 2015.
Dow
The mighty Dow has lagged the other indexes for around six months, but is now in the process of playing catchup. I'm seeking a few daily closes in the 15800s to clarify that 16k is likely...which in itself should make 17k - by late spring 2014, a given. There is absolutely nothing bearish here. Equity bears have zero reason to be excited unless the Dow breaks rising support, which is currently around 15k.
NYSE Comp'
The master index is holding the 10000s, and looks set for another 3-5% higher by year end. There is simply nothing bearish here, and a challenge of the Oct'2007 high of 10387 looks viable within 2-3mths.
R2K
Like the Nasdaq, the R2K is fractionally lower, with the Friday gain of 1.9% really helping. The R2K looks set for 1150/1175 by year end, the 1200s will be tough, as there will no doubt be a great deal of profit taking into year end..after such strong gains this year.
Trans
The old leader is holding the 7000s, and looks set for 7500/7750 by the end of next spring. There is nothing bearish here. Equity bulls have downside buffer to the 6500s - by end Dec, and that won't damage the core rising support from 2009.
The transports certainly is having a starkly different year to 2012...when it flat lined for the entire year in what was a bizarrely tight trading range around the big 5k psy' level.
Summary
Unquestionably, we're still broadly headed higher. None of the US indexes are even slightly bearish. Indeed, equity bulls have a good buffer zone of around 5-7% to the downside, and that would still leave the monthly picture broadly bullish.
The hyper-bullish outlook
With the weekly and monthly charts very much still clawing their way higher, I have no choice but to hold to the following crazy outlook...
sp'monthly6b - upside into 2015/16
I certainly see an intermediate peak at some point next year, but..probably significantly higher than current index levels. We could be talking about a 20% drop..but from the sp'2000/2100s. In many ways that would be a natural back test of the old double top of 2000/2007.
Looking ahead
In terms of US data, there isn't anything of significance due. There are the sporadic Fed officials on the loose, including the Bernanke on Wednesday (although that probably won't amount to anything).
Friday is opex, so..expect some chop to conclude next week.
*the only sig' QE-pomo next week is on Thursday ($3bn).
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On hold..until the spring
For the few remaining equity bears it continues to be a frustrating..and disturbingly bullish market. With the weekly and monthly charts both outright bullish, it seems utterly pointless to attempt any index shorts..even for the smaller 60/15 min trading cycles.
More than anything, I think those of a permabearish persuasion, should merely be in 'survival' mode until next spring..which in most cases should simply be a case of sitting it out on the sidelines.
Back on Monday :)