sp'weekly4 - hyper-bullish outlook - into 2015/16
sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook
Summary
For many of you out there, I realise this was just another depressing and disappointing end to the week. After all, Thursday's drop of sp'23pts was pretty impressive, not least with the Trans/R2K both getting smashed lower.
Yet, we have closed the week near all time historic highs..and the weekly charts - which were looking a touch vulnerable yesterday, are now right back to outright bullish.
What am I doing?
I did get one message earlier today, noting that a prediction of mine never worked out. Certainly, I had been looking for the sp'1735/30 zone to be hit.
To clarify, I am NOT shorting this market. I have..and will continue to state, I believe this market is effectively untradeable on the short side. Trying to grab 10, 15..even 25pts of downside is overly difficult in my view..and is simply not good on a risk/reward basis.
I have ZERO intention of shorting the main indexes (along with long VIX) until late spring 2014. Even then, trying to catch a late spring/early summer top will be damn tricky..not least for the option players who face the relentless problem of a ticking detonator clock.
Lately, I have done a few minor trades, but generally, I'm more than content to leave the indexes well alone.
I'm pretty sure we'll see a multi-month down wave next year...probably on the order of 17/22%..and that will most definitely offer great opportunity for the bears. It sure isn't spring yet though, and indeed, I'm generally a mere spectator on the sidelines.
After all, I am still inherently a 'Permabear' in trading style, but what I won't do..is get ground down to dust, before the eventual giant monthly cycles start to rollover.
I hope that clarifies things.
Goodnight from London
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*weekend post, late Saturday, on the US monthly indexes
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Video from the legendary Bill Still
A great reminder to many that if you strip out the QE 'new money', the US (or much of the EU/Japan) never really exited from the recessionary collapse wave of 2008/9..