Friday, 8 November 2013

Just a minor retracement

Equity bears saw their first decent down day in what seems like forever, yet...a retracement had been expected for well over a week. Baring a few daily closes <sp'1700, the primary trend remains unquestionably to the upside.




So...a down day....and yes..the daily declines were pretty significant, especially for the Nasdaq, Trans, and R2K.

The problem remains though, nothing has changed in the bigger picture. We're still headed broadly upward, the QE continues at $85bn a month, and the sp'1800s look a comfortable target before the year comes to a close.

In terms of the current wave lower...

sp'daily3 - fib levels

My best guess remains a floor in the 1735/30 zone. However, there is a small chance of 1710 - which would be supported on the fib' chart. 1710 is also where the 50 day MA will be lurking next week.

Looking ahead

There is actually quite a bit to conclude the week. First..the monthly jobs data, market is seeking net gains of 120k, with a headline rate of 7.3%. There is also personal income/outlays, and consumer sentiment.

There are also a few fed officials on the loose, not least the Bernanke, who will make an appearance late Friday.

*there is HEAVY QE of around $5bn...bears...beware!

Twitter starts with a black candle

One final chart to conclude today..and I guess it should be the Twitter (TWTR). Whatever you want to call today's daily candle (inverse shooting star?), it is a black candle (closes lower than the open, but still with a net gain), and those usually don't bode well for the near term. Facebook (FB) also began with a black candle, although FB closed flat, rather than TWTRs net gain of 71%

One thing is for sure..a one candle chart makes for much easier technical analysis.

Goodnight from London

Video update from Walker

I think I can say Walker is usually overly that in mind!