Volatility climbs a little

With the main indexes seeing moderate weakness across the day, the VIX had to battle hard just to break back into the low 14s. VIX closed +3.4%, settling at 14.29. Near term trend remains weak, and if the sp'500 can break into the 1700s again, VIX 12s look a given.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So..the VIX managed the first net daily gain since last Friday, but it was only 3%, and with the VIX at such low levels, its arguably to be dismissed as 'mere noise'.

Those equity bears seeking a major wave lower (taking out the sp'1627 low) should be desperate to see the VIX spike..and hold the 15s in the coming days.

Otherwise, I'm resigned to assuming sp'1700s...and indeed..new index highs if Mr Market can cope with 'QE taper' of 10/15bn or so.

Considering the weekly equity charts, I find it now very difficult to envision VIX 20s for some weeks, perhaps even...not until next year.

*it remains notable that in 2012 the VIX high was 27, and so far this year..the high has only been 21s
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more later on the indexes