sp'weekly8 - bullish outlook
Nasdaq comp' weekly
Summary
*Yours truly indeed waved the white flag of capitulation/surrender earlier today. Another failed VIX-long trade, from 15.50..bailing in the low 14s.
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Bulls..almost fully back in control
The August declines have almost been entirely negated, and we're only a third into the month! The Dow monthly chart says it all...
First target are the 15600s..any weekly close in the 15700s..and 16k should be easily hit. After that..well, then you'll start seeing more mainstream-media talk of 20k..by next spring.
Looking ahead
There is the weekly jobs data, import/export prices, and the Treasury Budget (2pm).
*there is significant QE-pomo, of around 3-4bn. That will no doubt help negate any selling/profit taking, after what has been a rather powerful three day ramp.
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So..I'm on the sidelines, and I think the bears have indeed utterly failed...again.
Right now, the notion that the market is somehow going to unravel across the next few days, err, no. .I find that next to impossible. There is simply no downside momentum anymore.
*As ever..I want to note I appreciate all comments, and regardless of what this twisted market does...I will still be here.
Goodnight from an autumnal London
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Mr Biderman has returned from a break...
*I actually have a bizarre hunch the Fed might raise rates next week (+25bps), although that goes against what any logic would suggest. Certainly, such a rate change - even a slight one, would really surprise many.
Anyway, regardless of what the Fed does with its own interest rate, the bond yields, along with mortgage rates have indeed already risen over 130bps since early summer.