Monday 30 September 2013

3pm update - greater risk of upside...than downside

Today is day'8 of a down cycle that began with the Thursday morning high of sp'1729, and during this whole move lower, the bears have entirely failed to display any downside power. Even this mornings declines have largely evaporated..and the VIX is actually in danger of closing red.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

It is a tricky closing hour to call. Certainly, the broader trend is still lower (if slowly), but a simple look at the hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, and there is very high risk of a snap higher.

Interesting price action in UAL, STX, and many of the miners.

updates..into the close...


3.07pm.. new Qe-pomo schedule out.. see NY Fed

Bears should certainly be mindful of the sig' QE tomorrow and Wednesday.


3.10pm.. despite the past 8 days of weakness, just consider that the 'old leader' is still a significant 5.5% higher on the month.



The broader up trend....continues
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3.20pm.. despite another wave of weakness in the sp', the two leaders  - Trans/R2K, are holding up pretty well, and certainly not warning of major downside.

Equity bears..and I realise there are a fair few out there today...should be desperate to break the opening low of 1674.99. A daily close at the lows..would indeed be bearish for tomorrow, and bode for a move to the 1660s..which some are suggesting.