Monday 30 September 2013

1pm update - a close in the 1690s looks unlikely

Equity bulls are trying to inch the market higher, but despite the jump above the opening low in the sp'1674s, the market looks set to close at least a touch red. VIX is still cooling down, now +7%...and almost 1 full pt below the opening spiky high.


sp'60min


sp'daily5


Summary

Clearly, the trend IS still lower on a multi-day basis.

Yet...does anyone seriously think the 1627 low is in serious danger of being taken out?   As the week progresses, the rising lower bollinger on the daily will be in the 1660s..and that will offer pretty firm support.

For the bulls out there, I can't have any confidence until I see a few daily closes in the 1710s, and even then, there is the small chance of the market putting in the first 'marginally lower high'.
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Notable mover...UAL...which appears have to have found good support at the 200 day MA - as I highlighted this past weekend.



..and that is indeed a reversal candle.
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1.22pm As I said to a few others yesterday evening, just look at the lack of downside power.

A looming Govt' shutdown, and the sp' is -4pts.

Where is the doom? Ohh, thats right...there isn't any.

VIX +5%, at this rate...it might even close red.
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1.38pm... reversal candles everywhere. Trans/R2K indexes...now positive. 

Did we put in a key floor at the Monday open...with a 'last minute deal'...due later tonight...for the sp' to then gap/soar into the 1700s again?

The VIX remains the tell...not least the opening black candle.