10am update - bears achieve a break

With the break <sp'1691, the bears have opened the door to a continued push lower to 1680/75, which will is certainly viable today. VIX is showing mild concern, +6% in the 14.90s. Precious metals are benefiting from concern about a seemingly likely US Govt. shut down...if only temporary.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

So...the end of the week, and bears are managing to push the market lower..if at a relatively slow pace.

The big issue is whether some last minute agreement (as is usually the case) can be made, preventing a temporary shut down of some US Govt' services.
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Notable mover...UAL, downgraded to neutral from 'buy'.by someone the market considers important.

With Oil close to $100 again, is this merely a good level to jump aboard? Obviously...the big target is a test of the 200 day MA, around $30, but that is another 4% lower.


10.33am...from an hourly MACD cycle perspective, I sure would have a VERY tight stop now.. sp'1693/95.

Yes, we've broken a level, but bears still look weak. The only slight issue is a VIX that has finally broken back into the 15s.

*note the R2K, is only down 0.2%. Generally, in a decent bear market, the R2K would be leading the way lower..and yet...its clearly only a touch lower.
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