Volatility rises into the 15s

With the main equity indexes weak across the day, the VIX managed to hold onto moderate gains, closing +5.1% @ 15.10. Near term trend is clearly to the upside, but a brief pull back to the rising 10 MA is similarly very viable. VIX 20s still look very unlikely until September.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Dare I start by noting, VIX 15s are still nothing for the equity bears to get overly excited about. We're a very long way from the first important threshold - VIX 20s, and I still don't see that as viable until next month.

Yet, volatility is trending to the upside..and the indexes look set for further falls on Tue/Wednesday.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is now at very high levels, and there is very significant probability of a pull back - which usually would be to the 10MA.

Best guess...sp'1680s..with VIX 13s...later this week. That will be the level where I will feel comfortable to get involved on the short-side.
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more later..on those weak indexes