sp'weekly9d - most bearish outlook
sp'weekly9c - lower trend to hit?
Summary
Regarding today, suffice to say, the bulls managed 4pts on the sp'500, which frankly is laughable. I remain surprised at the amount of bullish chatter out there. I sure haven't seen a market that has capitulated yet, not least with a great many issues looming for September.
Bigger picture H/S formation?
Well, I've said it a few dozen times already, but I'll say it again...
Bears must see a hit of the lower weekly bollinger - currently 1563 (but rising each week), in order for the bigger H/S formation to have any validity into Oct/November.
Even then of course, any daily closes >1709 (which is only 5% higher), would mean the scenario has to be trashed. For the moment though..its looking okay.
Looking ahead
There is the usual weekly jobs data, and also second reading/attempt for Q2 GDP - market is expecting an unchanged 0.7%.
*there is NO sig' QE tomorrow, and absolutely zero on Friday.
--
As many recognise there is a cluster of support in the sp'1625/15 zone. Bears really need to break <1610 by Friday afternoon, and that will open up the primary target zone of 1570/60s.
I find it very unlikely that we'll see a washout <1600 by this Friday (baring missiles flying overnight Thursday), but next week...most definitely, that will be the target.
Final chart to wrap up the day...
sp'daily4
Just a few minor things on daily4', not least the reminder (if only to myself) that the current wave lower (from sp'1669) should at least be as strong as the one from mid June. As a few have noticed today, this was the second daily close below the 100 MA, something we never saw in the last cycle.
Some could fairly argue that 'things are changing in the US markets'. The rather obvious target for the current wave would be the 200 day MA, currently creeping upward into the prime target zone of the 1560s. Its now all lined up, and the bears should be looking to push strongly lower into the Friday close.
--
*I am heavy LONG VIX, seeking an exit in the low 20s.
Video update from Walker (his video postings are free this week)
Goodnight from London