sp'weekly7 - near term bearish outlook
sp'weekly8 - mid-term hyper-bullish outlook
Summary
So...another day lower, and its somewhat amusing to see the mainstream mood change. The sp'1700s are now around 65pts higher..a good 4%. Even a 35pt bounce - back to sp'1680, will not do any real damage to what I believe is a new multi-week down cycle.
Autumnal problems?
The following remains something I will be keeping in mind for Oct/Nov
sp'weekly9d
The only decent short-trade would be after that RS is confirmed. Were that scenario to occur, we'd see VIX back in the 30s, if not 40s. Yet for now, that is simply 'crazy talk'. First, we need a hit of that lower weekly bollinger, currently @ 1558, and rising each week.
Looking ahead
There is no sig' news/econ-data due tomorrow. Neither is there any sig' QE-pomo until this Friday.
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I remain somewhat frustratingly on the sidelines, but hey, at least I've not been ground down on the long side. I continue to see a small bounce coming, back into the obvious gap zone of sp'1680/85.
sp'daily'3 - fib levels
sp'60min'4
With the weak closing hour, it looks like we'll break lower into the mid sp'1630s tomorrow/early Wednesday - where the 50% fib retrace is, along with the 100 day MA. With the FOMC minutes due Wednesday afternoon, I'm inclined to still believe the bulls will use that as an excuse to jump aboard, for a 3-5 day rally.
Goodnight from London