sp'weekly7 - near term bearish outlook
Summary
Another week comes to a close, and I'm kinda tired.
The one thing I want to especially highlight is the weekly 'rainbow' charts still closed with a blue candle...despite the net gains. This is good, and is the typical sort of thing we see in many multi-week down cycles.
So long as the bulls don't get a closing green candle at the end of next week, I have few concerns about the outlook into September.
Yields still broadly rising
The bond market used the weak homes data this Friday as an excuse to fall back, with the 10yr yield dropping 8bps to 2.82. The broad trend though, remains strongly to the upside...
10yr, monthly
For those looking for the sp' back under 1600 within the next 2-3 weeks, the 10yr breaking >3% would certainly help! First key target remains a rather obvious 3.25%.
Doomster autumnal dreams
Something to close the week with, and why not make it bearish..right?
sp'weekly9c - lower trend to hit
The aspect I'd like to note is that before point'1 (week of June'13 2011), the low from the previous cycle (week of March'14 2011) was sp'1249. The actual low for point'1 was 1258.
Our recent low was 1560, so...maybe a slightly higher low in the weeks ahead? I'd argue anything in the 1570/80s would be acceptable to keep the broader scenario on track.
Now, as I keep noting, the target remains the lower weekly bol' - currently 1558, but rising around 13pts a week. At the Mon' Aug'26 open, it'll likely jump to around 1570.
Its going to be real difficult for the bears to push the market down to the 1570/60s, but if we do hit this level , then I'll keep the weekly'9c scenario in mind. Its been two years since the last major correction, we're more than due something 'significant'..
Goodnight from London
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*next main post, late Saturday, on the US weekly indexes