Volatility melting lower again

With the main indexes rallying back from morning lows, the VIX failed to hold moderate gains, and closed -1.6% @ 12.97. If the sp' manages to break into the 1700s within the next few days, VIX looks set to slip into the 11s, before the next multi-week VIX up cycle.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The market is still broadly rallying - despite a touch of weakness in the past few days.

The underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for a third day, and this is indeed a good sign that the bulk of the current equity up wave is done.

*I am seeking sp'1550s (after 1710/20) in the next equity wave lower, the first sign of that should be a few daily VIX closes in the 16/17s. As has been the case for the last 18 months though, it will be difficult to see VIX in the 20s.

more later..on the indexes