Thursday, 25 July 2013

Seeking one final lurch higher

The main indexes closed moderately lower, and today's little decline could merely constitute a sub wave'4 of the broader powerful move from the sp'1560 low. The market looks set for at least one further wave higher, probably lasting into early next week.


sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook


Guessing the smaller waves of this twisted and nasty market remains something of a pointless exercise. Still though, I'll keep on the above charts show!

More than anything across the last few years, as someone who has read many thousands of well thought out postings, I've come to realise one thing. The 'typical' chartist out there generally under-estimates the duration of the up waves. This is especially the case for the 'doomer bear' chartists, even those who can stomach trading the up waves.

The current surge from sp'1560 is now over 4 weeks old, and really doesn't show much sign of ending. The weekly 'rainbow' chart is showing the fourth consecutive green candle..and this market is unquestionably in an outright bullish situation.


I will be delighted if we are indeed seeing a sub'4 play out, with a sub'5 to complete before the FOMC of next Wednesday. Yet, I have to note, its merely a guess, and its possible this rally will drag out into early August - which was my original outlook.

Broadly speaking, I'm still looking for a return to the sp'1550s in late Aug/early September, before renewed ramp (baring the end of QE) into spring 2014.

Looking ahead

There is the usual weekly jobs data, but more importantly, there are Durable Goods orders. So long as that comes in 'reasonable' the market should be able to push back into the 1690s.

*there is a very significant QE-pomo of around $4bn tomorrow, so bears beware!

Goodnight from London