Hanging in there

With the break into the mid sp'1620s, the bears started Q3 on a truly depressing note. Yet, the important weekly 10MA was still not breached, and like the multi-week down cycle of Sept-Nov'2012, the primary downside target remains the lower weekly bol', now @ 1506.


sp'weekly7 - near term 'bearish' outlook

Summary

I'm still inclined to hold to the original outlook.

Yet it is literally VERY borderline now. Any daily/weekly close above the weekly 10MA - currently @ 1627. would arguably be the big buy signal the bulls need.
--

Underlying MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is still ticking lower - for the seventh week, and this is something those on the long side should keep in mind. In many ways, the only decent and safe long side trade is within 5-10pts of the lower weekly bollinger.


Looking ahead

In terms of econ-data for Tuesday, there is factory orders data, although I don't think the market is paying too much attention to anything ahead of the holiday.

*Tuesday has no significant QE, so the market will have slightly less pressure to the upside.

Goodnight from London