Saturday, 20 July 2013

Another week for the bulls

It was the fourth consecutive week higher for the US equity markets, with the sp +0.7% @ 1692. That makes for a rather incredible gain of 132pts - almost 9%, across just 19 trading days. The only issue in the immediate term, is when will the current up wave exhaust itself?


sp'weekly4 - hyper-bullish outlook


Summary

I thought I would close the week with the rather disturbing 'hyper-bullish' scenario.

I am endeavouring to keep an open mind, but unless QE ends - not only in the US Federal Reserve, but in other central banks, then world equity markets will surely just keep battling higher..at least into spring 2014..if not 2015/16.

Best guess in the immediate term, is that we'll see the current up wave conclude within the next 1-3 weeks, and then proceed downward to the lower weekly bollinger..which by September will be in the 1550s.

From there...baring an end to QE (which I doubt).. the markets will relentlessly ramp into spring 2014..with the sp' breaking the big 2000 level.

I realise that outlook is not what many will want to hear, but that's how I am currently seeing things.

Goodnight from London
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*next post, late Saturday, on the US weekly index charts.