Volatility fails to hold earlier gains

The month started with some moderate swings in the market, but with the indexes climbing into the close, the VIX was naturally unable to hold gains, closing -0.1% @ 16.28  Daily trend looks very toppy now, and a multi-day drop into the 14s now looks very likely.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

I was a little surprised to see the VIX open higher, and even more surprised to see it break into the mid 17s.

Yet, as is almost always the case, we saw a latter day equity rally, and the VIX dropped across the afternoon.

Lets be clear, there is NO turn/levelling phase on the VIX daily chart at the moment. However, on any basis, we're very high on the cycle, and I am guessing we'll see the VIX melt lower into the 14s..perhaps even the 13s by the end of this week.

--
*equity bulls should be seeking a VIX Tuesday close <15.

more later...on the indexes