Volatility climbs a little

With the indexes closing somewhat weak, the VIX climbed across the day, closing +4.5% @ 17.15. Despite the positive close, the daily MACD cycle ticked lower for the second consecutive day, and VIX will likely be in the 14s next week, unless the Sp breaks <1608.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Equity bears should keep in mind that yes, the VIX gained 4.5% today, but it lost over 11% yesterday. With the daily charts showing momentum turning back to the equity bulls, it would seem unlikely that VIX will be breaking above the key 20 threshold any time soon.

Indeed, if sp' breaks the recent high of 1646, then VIX will be back in the lowly 14s, and it could easily remain there for the next 3-5 weeks.

Best guess remains that VIX has put in a key double top around 18.50, and is now beginning a multi-week decline..whilst equities make an attempt to break above sp'1687.

*Across the week, the VIX gained 13.3%, but the weekly candle is looking a bit spiky, and that doesn't inspire great confidence for some kind of surge into the 20s next week.
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more later...on the indexes