Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed on a weak note, with the sp' closing -0.6% @ 1626, that made for a weekly decline of 16pts (1%). Certainly, it was a pretty fierce battle across the week between bulls and bears, but the bulls did manage an important marginally higher low @ 1608.


sp'daily5

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Summary

So, we closed lower, and indeed the closing hour was itself pretty weak. Yet, there really wasn't any significant market panic/concern - as there was on Wednesday. The VIX did climb 4.5% - confirming the equity weakness, but that sort of move in the VIX really isn't anything for the bears to get overly excited about.

More than anything this week, what seems central to keep in mind, is that the bulls managed to hold the absolutely critical sp'1598 line, and indeed, put in a slightly low @ 1608.

Hourly charts offer some equity upside for Monday, and with a very large QE of 5-6bn, the bears have a real problem to begin next week.

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*I am holding a small index-long position across the weekend, from sp'1626, seeking an exit in the sp'1645/55 area by next Tuesday afternoon.

a little more later...