The market is seeing a very small down cycle, but a rally into the close still seems likely..with moderately higher indexes. There is a tiny chance of a close in the 1650s, although that seems far more likely late Wed/early Thursday. VIX is +5%, but that's really not much.
You can see on the daily charts, that makes for a rather clear wave'2 floor-spike.
Underlying MACD cycle is STILL ticking higher, despite the last two days of weakness.
Bears have even bigger problem, this Thursday. There is 3bn of QE-pomo, and I'm guessing other markets will similarly be clawing higher. Ohh.and its opex next week, that is generally not bearish.
VIX update from Mr T.
UPDATE 1.32pm...sp'1631..hmm. Bulls really need to hold 1630s at the close.
Considering the morning action, this is almost certainly just a minor down cycle.
1.40pm.. looks like the 1629/30 area is support. That could be it.
Easy long trade here, with a loose stop @ 1620....not that I'm taking it!