Good morning. Futures are somewhat lower, sp-8pts, we're set to open around 1646. Bears need a break <1640, and then quickly <1635. However, with huge QE of 5-6bn today, bears face massive resistance. USD is moderately higher.
All things considered, I don't think the bears can break back into the 1630s.
There is important econ-data this morning - the PMI number at 9.45am will be a market mover, look for the market to especially move at 9.40am - when a number of people receive the data prior to main market.
So..my best guess for today - market sells off to around 10.30/11am, but holds sp'1642/40, as best seen on the 15min cycle chart.
*look for an opening black/fail candle on the VIX.
However, I will note the MACD cycle on the VIX offers a broad VIX rise across the ENTIRE day. Arguably, that is the most bearish possibility right now.
*I am heavy short the indexes, and will seek an exit at the open.
I do not intend to go long today, but will consider trading long (probably via Oil) next Monday instead.
Update from Permabull...Mr Carboni...
tis the last day of the week..and month. Updates across the day.
UPDATE 9.33am... exiting short positions...