2pm update - keep falling..or bounce?

Mr Market has fallen 20pts from the recent high..and its getting increasingly difficult to imagine we'll see one final spike higher. Yet..it IS possible. On any basis, the hourly charts are low, and bears need to be mindful of a late day recovery. VIX is higher..but still lurks in the lowly 13s.


sp'60min

Trans'daily

Summary

I've not mentioned it yet today, but the Transports is now the second index to break key rising support - in addition to the Rus'2000.

So, that's two indexes, and I've now zero doubt the others will follow.
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For the bears, its now just a case of catching the top of the next up cycle..for what is arguably an easy ride down to the 1540/30s.

Best guess..we rally...whether its a lower high in the 1560s..or a final spike to 1576...we'll just have to see.

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I am now waiting to launch a heavy index short...but not today.

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Metals remain smashed..as are the miners...the spring is likely going to be...rough.
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VIX'daily3

VIX is trying to bust upward..but if the indexes are floored - and they sure might be..then we'll see another pullback, but maybe another higher low.

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UPDATE 2.15 ...it does look like we've floored...nothing..concrete yet though, we'll know by the close.

back at 3pm