Volatility ends Q1 in the 12s

The VIX closed the shortened week on a weak note, -3.4% @ 12.70. Across the week, the VIX lost 6.4%. Near term trend looks like VIX 11s are viable, especially if the market can put in a few closes in the sp'1570s. VIX will surely break back into the 20s, sometime in Q2.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

The market is almost maxed out (on any basis), and the VIX is similarly likely very close to putting in a key multi-month cyclical low.

Best guess, we see the indexes briefly higher Mon-Wed, and then a rollover should start to become clear by the end of next week.

First upside on the VIX is 15/16, and then 19/20. A weekly close >20 would be extremely significant, and bode for something more 'interesting' than just an ordinary 4-6 week down cycle.

For the bears, the latter part of next week is arguably VIX shopping time.

more later...on the indexes