Friday, 29 March 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The US market closed moderately higher to end the first quarter, with the sp' briefly breaking into the 1570s, a level not seen since Oct'2007. Transports were the strongest sector, climbing 1%, with the Rus'2000 small cap closing flat. Near term trend remains up.





The micro-count on the hourly indexes remains a bit of a confusing and uncertain mess.

Yet, the daily charts are pretty clear. Trend remains up!

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is ticking upward, and the sp' is due to go positive cycle at the Monday open on April 1'st. There is no reason to believe we won't see at least 1 or 2 daily closes in the 1570s.

The only issue is how many up days do we get, in what I believe is the last up small up cycle of this very large November wave. Best guess..we are maxed out by Wednesday, with VIX possibly back in the 11s.

For the bears out there, its almost time.

a little more later