sp'daily7 - fib levels
sp'weekly2, rainbow
sp'monthly3, rainbow
Summary
So, today was a bit of a choppy mess, and I'm sure many are already longing for the extended Easter weekend. I am one of them.
As someone who is seeking to re-short the indexes and start picking up VIX call blocks, I'm resigned to waiting until next week. As has been the case in the past three years, April/May is often a good place to pick up short positions for a multi-week down cycle.
Bigger picture outlook
In terms of the next few months, I'm still seeking a multi-week down cycle, primary target is somewhere in the 1490/70 area. That's not exactly the most exciting scale (5-7%) of drop, but its possible we might fall to the lower bollinger band (weekly cycle)...which by early May will probably be in the 1425/50 area.
I will note that the MACD (green bar histogram) on the weekly charts is now looking very good for the bears. We have a lower secondary tower/wave, and we ARE rolling over. We should see a close below the important 10MA by mid April.
Looking ahead
We have plenty of econ-data tomorrow morning, not least the Durable Goods Orders data. Keep in mind that Thursday will be key with GDP and PMI data.
Certainly, there is potential for further index declines this week, but I would be somewhat surprised if we go below the recent 1538 low. There remains very strong rising support on the sp in the 1520/25 area. I just can't see that being broken this side of the Easter break, even if some of the econ-data comes in way below market expectations.
In my view...the bears would be better to just sit this week out..and see where we're at next Monday..April 1'st.
Goodnight from London
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Bonus video, from Biderman. He has some interesting ideas on how April might play out, in relation to money flow and tax year issues.