sp'weekly
sp'monthly6 - four scenarios
Summary
Today saw a pretty strong close for the sp' in the 1530s. With the upper bollinger on the weekly chart now @ 1546, there is a good 1% air to the upside. By late March/april, we'll likely have open air to the Oct'2007 high of 1576.
The sp'1600s look very viable before the next major down cycle.
The 1987 'ramp and crash' scenario
I've added a fourth scenario to my monthly chart. Scenario D' is something that Marc Faber highlighted lately, where we ramp into the summer..only to collapse in the autumn.
It has to be said, such a scenario would probably be an absolute nightmare to trade. Considering the fact that the market is now almost officially 'not allowed' to fall, it'd be a real surprise if we even saw a one day fall of more than 5%, never mind 20% !
*Having mentioned the infamous 1987 collapse, I should mention that the market yesterday saw the loss of Martin Zweig.
see story @ bloomberg news.
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Bears need to be patient.
There will be a time when it will be very appropriate to start a post with a video like the one below, but not yet.
The bears are very likely going to have to wait until May - at the earliest, to have any ANY hope of major downside. Yet, are we only going to see 5, 7, maybe 10% lower?
As I noted a few times recently. If we get stuck around 1600, that would mean the new floor is probably in the 1500/1450 level. That's not exactly the most exciting 'bearish' target, is it?
As for Wednesday, we have a few bits of econ-data in the early morning, but slightly more interestingly, we have the FOMC minutes (2pm). The media chatter will doubtless be about when QE might end. As if.
Goodnight from London