Thursday, 21 February 2013

The Bears are being teased

The biggest index declines of the year, and the largest VIX jump, yet its very likely just a little tease to the bears. There is still huge underlying upward pressure in the US markets. Near term downside looks limited to sp'1490/80, with VIX in the 17s.

To close today, here is an assortment of things, that I hope will keep things in perspective.

sp'daily7, fib levels


sp'monthly3, rainbow


Finally, a little dynamic price action that actually makes this market at least somewhat interesting! After a good six weeks of near total algo-bot was a relief.

There is a basic fib retracement level target of sp'1480...that's just about viable, whilst still holding within the broader upward channel.  Maybe that can be hit next Tue/Wednesday*

*next week will be primarily focused on what the Bernanke has to say. He is due for his twice yearly appearance before the Senate and House finance committees - which are being held next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Eyes on Mr Dollar

Finally, I think its critical to keep some attention on the US Dollar. The USD saw some very significant strength today, and that's no doubt why the market - and those precious metals, saw increased weakness in the afternoon.

USD, daily

USD, weekly

Will the H/S formation be violated to the upside? Arguably, any weekly close >81.50..and the doomer bear scenario of 'ides of March' comes into play.

Right now though, I'm still guessing that won't be the case.

Bears will surely have to endure at least one further wave higher. A chart I posted at the weekend, might be useful to keep in mind next week.

sp'daily4 - bearish scenario

I still find it difficult to believe we'll put in a key multi-year cyclical top this spring. Until the Fed stop the POMO program, I just can't see any major index declines. Yet perhaps we can chop around between sp'1600-1400 for a few months this summer before the Fed end QE in the July-Sept period?

It was an interesting day, hopefully it will be much the same tomorrow.

Goodnight from London