Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes saw their biggest decline of the year, although we remain very close to the recent tops. Transports and IWM - both the key leaders, saw very significant declines of 1.6 and 1.9% respectively. Bears will need follow through on Thur/Friday, and get a daily close <sp'1500.


IWM, daily

SP'daily5

Trans

Summary

First, you can see that IWM (rus'2000) is already close to breaking the channel on the daily cycle. That's kinda important to keep in mind. Downside looks to be the 50 day MA @ 88 - next week.

SP' saw a pretty significant decline - bigger than the one on Fri' Dec'28th. You remember, the one which Zerohedge deemed a 'bloodbath'...only to then see a two day hyper ramp from sp'1398 to 1456.


Bears need to be careful here

The broader trend remains strongly higher, and my best guess is we'll only decline to around sp'1490/80 by early next week. A brief spike in the VIX to the 17s seems to be the most likely scenario, before another equity wave higher into March/April.

A little more later, with a few charts I think are particularly important.
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