Wednesday, 27 February 2013

3pm update - maxed out?

The index and VIX action is very similar to the two day ramp of Feb 21/22. The opening 30mins of Feb'23 were even better entry levels for the bears...perhaps it'd be better to sit it out overnight..and see how we open. Transports back >6000..metals remain especially weak.




I am surprisingly patient today, but then its been a rough week or so. I'd rather miss out on a decline, than get nailed on a gap over sp'1530 tomorrow.

Best guess...we are VERY close to the top of this wave.

There is a 30-50% chance we'll get a minor gap lower in the VIX in the opening 30mins of which point, if I see a reversal candle..and black candles on the hourly index charts... I will re-short..from a much more comfortable level - not least that the Bernanke is out of the way.

..updates... probably across this closing hour...things are getting kinda interesting at these levels.

UPDATE 3.10pm ...VIX still melting lower.

With things as they are...I think I'm going to sit it out until early tomorrow. Those SPY puts sure are tempting though at current prices.

UPDATE 3.20pm  Clown network hosts getting overly excited about the Dow.

 *so far, dow is only index above the recent highs. I'd not consider it a valid leader.

3.40pm...sitting this nonsense out.

sp'1519/20....there is soft resistance in that 1520/22 area..but Transports is screaming higher...

more on that..after the close.