Wednesday, 16 January 2013

Volatility - a touch lower

With the main indexes still stuck just under the mid-Sept 1474 high, the VIX again failed to hold opening gains, closing 1% lower, to settle @ 13.42. Considering the next big event - the debt ceiling, is looming on the horizon, the VIX remains bizarrely low.




The VIX came close to breaking into the 12s today, the low being 13.20. 

*If we do see a break >sp'1474, then VIX in the 12s is assured. Yet so far, sp'1474 resistance is holding.

The hourly chart is pretty much exhausted to the downside though. A brief spike into the giant gap level @16-18 seems viable...sometime later next week.

If my mid-term outlook of sp'1510/20 is correct though, then VIX 12/11 is indeed likely, and in fact we may see a brief major cyclical low in the single digits. VIX 9 would be something to behold, that's for sure.

As ever..keeping an open mind will be important.

More later..on the indexes