Thursday, 31 January 2013

Volatility fractionally lower

It was a quiet day in volatility land, with the VIX trading in a very tight range. Despite the indexes occasionally going green, VIX held the 14s, closing -0.3% @ 14.28. The gap-zone of 16-18 remains the primary target for this up cycle, which will surely be completed next week.




I suppose the VIX at least held the 14s, but certainly, this battle up from the low 12s is taking its time. At this rate of increase its going to take 6-8 weeks to hit 20, and I don't think 20 is viable anyway.

The MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is already getting a little high, and VIX closed just under the upper bollinger band. Its going to be VERY difficult to break above, and close in the 16s.

The upper gap zone of 18 is going to be a severely difficult level to hit. Certainly, its possible if the indexes get down to the low 1460s, but those levels are going to be difficult to hit.

As I keep noting, the bears 'lack power'. They have been destroyed since the two hyper-ramp of Dec'31/Jan'2, and the 4 subsequent weeks of algo-bot melt have ground them down.

How we trade Friday will be critical. Bears need a close <sp'1490, with VIX in the 15s.

more later..on the indexes