Tuesday, 8 January 2013

11am update - retracement..underway

Well, it looks pretty decisive now, a retracement from last weeks gains is underway. First target is sp'1440/35, that is easily within range by tomorrow or early Thursday. VIX could do a simple gap fill at either 16..or even 18, although the latter seems pretty unlikely, even if we hit sp'1425.




So..we're on our way down, and now the only issue is how far down.

I don't see anyone touting anything <1425, other than the usual 'omg, we're going to crash' people.

On any basis, 1435/25 is a very reasonable place to build new longs, for a February/March hit of 1510/20.

Considering the smaller cycles, I'm simply not comfortable re-shorting this nonsense.

If somehow we rally back to 1460/65..and get stuck again, ...maybe.