It was a choppy market day, and as ever, its important to keep things in perspective. The bigger monthly charts are still warning of trouble, and so far, my original outlook remains on track, with a target of sp'1225 within the next 2-6 weeks.
spdaily5b - scenarios
First, I think its important to keep in mind a few scenarios. I am dismissing 'A', I think we're either going to see B or C pan out.
So, I'm pretty sure we'll see a break into the sp'1200s (whether its 1260s, or 1220s, I don't mind which!), the only issue is...when!
The time frame is going to be really hard to guess, so...I just think everyone who is on the bearish train right now, needs to be patient. The sp'1200s might not be reachable until January.
Monthly charts..highlighting the 10MA @ 1394
A break <1400, should open up 1380s, and with a few daily closes under the monthly 10MA of 1394, I think we should be on our way to the 1200s. Its viable this month, but it might take until January.
We have a lot of econ-data tomorrow, not least the ADP jobs data -although most analysts are justifiably dismissive of this seemingly random number generator the people at ADP use. Regardless, the market will take notice of the number, and will then look ahead to the US Govt' number on Friday.
Today was a bit frustrating, not least the opening hour. I will hope for a major gap lower tomorrow, if not Thursday. That would allow my next exit - somewhere around sp'1385...very much easier.
Goodnight from London