sp'daily3 - news to come
sp'monthly3, rainbow, count
sp'daily5b - scenarios
This week will be all about the Fed. Will they follow through with their planned - as announced at the Sept' FOMC, of 45bn t-bond buying, beginning in January? With unemployment data (official Disneyland version) now at 7.7%, might the Bernanke cancel the planned bond buying?
If that happened, I'm sure Mr Market would be pretty upset, and would quickly break <sp'1400, with yet another test of the big 200 day MA, now @ 1386.
However, there is the ultimate problem of who will then buy the bonds, if the Bernanke doesn't ? This would not be such a problem though if ALL fiscal cliff measures are allowed to pass, slashing the US fiscal deficit almost in half. See, there is a bright side to every doomer outcome!
The Big Count..unchanged
The original monthly count remains unchanged. My broad outlook is for low sp'1200s in early 2013, with the next multi-month up cycle starting in March/April.
As for the near term, I'm guessing we see a decline, but then one final bounce. That bounce may easily fail to break a new high >1423 (scenario D), and merely rollover into year end.
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There is nothing much to move the market tomorrow - unless some US politician opens his mouth, and we're more than likely going to see a repeat of today's 'nothing'.
Goodnight from London