3pm update - closing hour bull fail ?

There is a touch of weakness right now, but the damage has already been done to the bear case. Until we break the recent sp'1398 low, the more cautious bears should arguably wait. VIX is trying to battle back to close flat, but even 16s..would be embarrassingly low.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

Kinda interesting.

Only a red close would make me feel marginally less annoyed today, and red indexes look next to impossible.
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What remains the greater concern is how the market will react to Bernanke tomorrow.

UPDATE...tranny...weakest..and once again...the leading warning.

 Thats a pretty significant failure-spike, a red close would be...something for the bears to hold onto.

UPDATE ...VIX hourly..breaks the down trend...its a 'soft' level, but..there IS potential for a mini snap higher into the close.

Trans index.... RED.  

Sp'500...looking very spiky now...jeez..surely not..a red close? hourly charts would support it, but it has to keep pushing from here...no pausing!

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UPDATE 3.30pm,  bears need a close <sp'1422 to clearly break the ascending channel.

With VIX back to flat..@ 16.01...the bears have at least something to end the day with..although its not much.

back after the close