Saturday, 29 December 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The week closed badly for Mr Market. There was distinct weakness across the day, and unlike Thursday, no ramp..and instead...a mini-cascade, almost taking out the big sp'1400 level. The VIX strongly confirmed the significant index declines.

*as at 5pm EST, in AH action, the ES indicates the sp -11pts from the closing level, we are trading just a touch over the critical 200 day MA @ sp'1390.

Lets take a look at those daily charts...


IWM, daily



Dow



Sp'daily5



Trans


Summary

So...we closed in what some are calling a bloodbath. Well, I'd not use that word quite yet..I'll save it for Monday/early 2013.

The close of sp'1402 was a bonus, and we're just 12pts away from breaking the big 200 day MA @ sp'1390. The loss of dow 13k was certainly decisive, and there is now open air of a further 5-6% decline next week.


What about Monday?

As I type, the ES is still -8pts from the closing level, so the bears are already seeing some further significant damage in the Friday AH session.

All things considered, the week closed very well, and the bears have a massive opportunity next week to test the November low of sp'1343. Even if we see a strong bounce off that level, I don't believe it will hold on a multi-week basis.

Primary downside target remains sp'1225, with VIX 35/45....by mid-January.

A little more later....