Saturday, 15 December 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The main market confirmed Thursdays important initial decline, and most indexes showed further moderate declines. It appears that all indexes have now conclusively broken their up channel from the lows in mid November. This wave'2 bounce is apparently...done.

Nasdaq Comp





I think the bears should be very pleased with how the week concluded. Despite the FOMC spike higher to sp'1438, we're now 25pts lower - and thats without any major impulsiveness to the downside.

First target is the recent 1398 low. I do not expect that to hold, and then we should at least get down to the 1385/80 level - where the fib' chart suggest we might get stuck.

Most notable today..the transports. A four candle spiky top is very rare, and it is arguably the most bearish chart out there right now. Tranny could easily slip back to 5000, that's 4% lower, and probably suggestive of around 35/40pts off the SP', that's the low 1380s again.

One thing I'd like to see early Monday, the dow back under 13k. Maybe we can get a Monday gap lower of 1-1.5%. Anything more than that, and it makes my next exit..that much easier.

A little more later