Friday 21 December 2012

12pm update - lunchtime market woes

The market bounce in early morning, but as expected..we're seeing renewed weakness. After all, who wants to buy after last nights (brief) lock limit down? With no cliff agreement not likely until the latter part of January, if not Feb/March, Mr Market is beginning to re-price.

There is a considerable way down to go. Primary target remains sp'1225.


sp'daily5



vix'daily



Summary

Things are going okay for the bears, we're seen a bounce, so..now its a case of 'how do we close?'. I think we can at least test last Fridays lows of 1413..and take out out.
--

An absence of scary facts

I find it interesting how the clown networks have entirely failed to note the flash-crash in the ES last night. I've not watched them 24/7, but..from what I gather, none have mentioned it.
 -

The point I'd like to emphasise is - as we saw in May 2010, overnight brief spikes lower can be an indication of where the market will trade in normal trading the next day.

Last night we hit the equivalent of sp'1393.

So...if we can break into the low sp'1390s later today, I'll look to bail then...and re-short, sometime next week.
--

UPDATE 12.27pm   I really like the lower channel of the Keltner as an exit late today...if we get there.



An exit in the low 1390s..would certainly seem wise, with a bounce next week to 1410/15.

LVS is a nice chart


target would be low 30s within the next 1-3 months.
 --

UPDATE 1pm Well, they are still battling it out in the sp'1420s.

Bears should be seeking significant latter day weakness, with an attempt to take out the sp'1413 low from last Friday.

If that occurs..expect things to spiral...FAST.


Any close today <1413..and we'll have a very spiky weekly candle.

VIX has slipped back into the high 18s again, but.. that will break the key 20 threshold..if sp<1413.

Lets see how this proceeds..with 3 hours left of the week!