11am update - market on edge

We've already seen a significant morning bounce, and the VIX has really cooled off, yet the overnight moves are not to be dismissed so easily. The 50pt lock limit down on the ES futures was a very significant warning that this market can now implode at any point.


sp'daily5

vix'daily

Summary

So..a bounce has probably shaken out most of the weaker bears, and sucked in the dumbest of bull maniacs.

I'm seeking latter day weakness, with a break of rising support -which by the close will be around sp'1425.
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*I picked up some VIX calls in the past hour, this might be one of the last opportunities to go long VIX <20.
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First target remains a daily/weekly close >20. Then 24/26..and then low 30s.

UPDATE 11.20am The euro is seeing some weakness, confirmed the recent two day top.

A break <1.30 would probably see the SP' well below 1400

UPDATE 11.25am...we're seeing some renewed weakness, and we're now about to take out the rising support on the daily at 1425.

This opens up the recent 1413 low.. then 1398.