Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Volatility surprisingly lower

With the main indexes closing higher by around 0.75/1.0%, the VIX closed 4.5% lower @ 17.58. Considering the uncertainty of the election, and the many lurking econ-time bombs out there - not least the fiscal cliff, it is remarkable that the VIX remains <20.




If you take a slightly broader perspective, the VIX remains in a slow, but steady uptrend since the QE index highs in mid-September. Yet, its taken almost 7 weeks to crawl from the low 13s to 17. That is a very marginal increase, and as I keep noting, until the VIX starts closing >20, this really is a very low..and unreliable VIX.

Near term target remains 20/21, but...that target can be scrubbed if we get a closing sp>1445/50 in the next few days. We'll certainly know...soon enough.

more later