10am update - Election chop

Since it is election day, it would be somewhat surprising if we do anything other than minor chop today. I'd guess we'll close within the war zone...somewhere in the range of 1420/00. VIX will probably close a little higher.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

vix'daily

Summary

We still have pretty clear bear flags on the daily index charts. Essentially, the bears have leeway up to around sp'1440. Any daily closes over around 1445/50, and the near/mid-term bearish scenarios will have to be thrown into the trash.

I'd be surprised if we can claw into the 1430s today, never mind the '40s.
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*I am still guessing Obama wins a second term, although it may take some days, even a week or two to clarify the result. If it does drag out, then Mr Market won't be entirely pleased, just like in 2000.

back at 12pm