Volatility set to spike

With the main equity indexes continuing to look weak, it would seem the VIX is still long overdue a considerable spike higher. A move to at least 20/21 seems likely, but its possible we may briefly see 24/26, before the indexes see a bounce back to sp'1400.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily

VIX'weekly

Summary

It was something of a particularly strange week in VIX land. Thursday was an especially weird day, and despite the indexes closing lower by 1%, the VIX still closed -3%. I really don't know what to make of it.
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Regardless, ALL three VIX cycles look very bullish for early next week. The hourly cycle is very close to breaking the key 20 threshold. A daily close >20 would be really bearish for the indexes, and open up a brief spike to the mid 20s.

All things considered, I just can't see VIX in the 30s for at least a few more weeks..and that's still assuming the bears can put a lid on the next index up cycle.

My best guess...if sp'1345/40..next week, then VIX 24.

more later...