Tuesday, 27 November 2012

Primary targets remain sp'1425, and then 1225

Another day where the market rallied into the close, although this apparent wave'2 bounce from the 1343 low appears to be nearing completion. Primary target remains sp'1425, which is easily within reach, and then it will be important for the bears to see a reversal..a REALLY strong reversal to the downside.

sp'weekly2, rainbow




First, consider the daily Fib' chart, the mid sp'1420s look very viable based on this alone.

The weekly chart is flashing a provisional sell warning with a blue candle, although if we get into the sp'1420s, this will flip to green, so its not too important right now to get focused on this issue. What is important is that we don't put in a weekly close above sp'1425

Looking ahead

We have Bernanke at breakfast time. I'm not sure whether the clown network finance TV will be taking much notice of his comments, although I guess they will be. 

Durable Goods Orders will be the key econ-data of the day, if the data at least comes in-line with expectations - no matter how 'bad' it is, then Mr Market will probably be able to rally to 1415/2.

What happens when we get to 1425...that will possibly be the remaining key turning point of this year.

Any closes in the 1440s arguably rules out any major downside wave, and I'd have to re-evaluate.

Seeking a reversal

However, if we do see a strong reversal later this week, and perhaps even closing <1400, then next week sure could be 'interesting'.

The bull maniacs who are again buying the dip, sure as hell better hope the US politicians manage to agree to delaying 'most' of the tax rises and spending cuts, otherwise Mr Market is going to have to swiftly price in a US recession in Q1 2013.

Goodnight from a rainy and chilly London