sp'weekly
sp'weekly2, rainbow
Summary
I remain holding to a primary target of sp'1345, as based on the weekly cycles.
Bears need to put in a good capitulation low, then a bounce to around 1400/25 (back test against the broken Oct'2011 rising support) across 2-4 weeks, and then put in the first lower high.
I cannot emphasise enough the importance of putting in a lower high. It is something that is arguably the most critical aspect for all the doomer bears out there.
All those touting 'omg, we're going to crash', well, I can only suggest they go look at a weekly/monthly chart from 2007/08, and see what happened then. The collapse wave only came after a number of lower highs..and lower lows - and that process took around 9 months.
Until we start seeing a series of lower highs, a move much below sp'1200 (which is my best bear case within the next 2-4 months) seems entirely implausible.
Bonus chart...
sp'monthly5 - fibs
I certainly don't trade on fib' levels, but its kinda interesting. Maybe we'll get stuck in the sp'1230s in this new multi-month decline? I could live with that as a cycle low, before a 2-4 month bounce into mid-2013.
Looking into Tuesday
With the bond market running, things should be a lot more active. Considering the hourly index cycles, I do suspect there will be some considerable downside, I'm looking for at least sp'1365, anything in the 1350s would be a real bonus.
There is some key econ-data on Wednesday and Thursday, so there is good potential for some major market moves.
*November 13'th will see a solar eclipse in Australia, for a lucky few, a very special day is ahead.
Goodnight from London